Global warming as the worst science fiction

The evil that ABC did in broadcasting Earth 2100 will live on long after them. By presenting a fictional account of future global warming, they will make it far more difficult to do what we do need to do to combat global warming.

The greenhouse effect is real. CO2 does push up temperatures. Global warming has been occurring since about 1880 (although it has taken a breather lately, with no warming since 2002). But when ABC paints a scary picture of temperatures rising six degrees by 2070 and sea level rises of 3-7 meters, it is about as real as Battlefield Earth. In fact, last night's show would have been improved by John Travolta...

Scientists now think that global warming is going on holiday, perhapsfor as long as 30 years. It will come back, they say, and we still need to act to minimize it, mitigate its effects and adapt to its consequences. But when people realise (as they are realising now) that temperatures are not going to climb every year, they are not going to remember what sober scientists say. They are going to think of Earth 2100 and other scare stories about catastrophe, and realise that they were lies. They will then completely tune out science and it will be impossible to even do the sensible things we can and should do.

Earth 2100 predicts a temperature rise of 6 degrees Celsius by 2070. The UN's IPCC predicts between 2 and 4 degrees by 2100. Earth 2100 predicts sea level rise of 3 to 7 meters by 2070. The IPCC predicts about 1 and a half feet by 2100. "The new report says rises could range from 18 cm to 59 cm." Earth 2100 predicts melting of the Greenland ice cover. The IPCC says that they don't think that will happen, but if it does it will take over three thousand years.

The real crime is that the second half of the show, which shows how we can avert the worst of climate change, is quite good. But ABC made it less possible that we will reach the consensus we need to bring this more hopeful scenario to pass. I love science fiction--but not when it's presented as fact. When the public turns its back on climate change, as is already beginning to happen, Earth 2100 will bear its share of responsibility. To see what scientists are really thinking, and how FEMA is preparing to deal with climate change, click here for our follow-up story.